Global airline traffic on pace for Big growth

Global air passenger traffic grew 5.5 per cent last year and is on pace to increase 20 per cent through 2016, according to the UN agency that governs civil aviation. The International Civil Aviation Organization says passenger traffic was up 0.2 percentage points from 2012 and should increase by at least six per cent annually to reach nearly seven trillion passenger-kilometres in 2016.

Forecast Highlights:          

Regional Outlook

• Asia-Pacific  passenger traffic is forecast to grow at 6.7% CAGR. Traffic within the Asia-Pacific region will represent 33% of global passengers in 2016, up from 29% in 2011. This makes the region the largest regional market for air transport (ahead of North America and Europe which each represent 21%).
• Africa will report the strongest passenger growth with 6.8% CAGR. International cargo demand will rise 4%.
• The Middle East is expected to have the third fastest growth rate at 6.6%. International freight demand will grow at 4.9%, the strongest growth among the regions.
• Europe will see international passenger demand growth of 4.4% CAGR. International freight demand for the region will grow 2.2% CAGR, the slowest for any region.
• North America will record the slowest international passenger demand growth–4.3% CAGR. International freight demand will rise 2.4%.
• Latin America will see international passenger demand grow 5.8% CAGR. International freight demand will increase 4.4% per annum.

International Passenger Development

• International passenger numbers are expected to grow from 1.11 billion in 2011 to 1.45 billion passengers in 2016, bringing 331 million passengers for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3%.
• Five of the 10 fastest growing markets for international passenger traffic are among the Commonwealth of Independent States or were part of the former Soviet Union with the others in Latin America, Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Kazakhstan leads at 20.3% CAGR, followed by Uzbekistan (11.1%), Sudan (9.2%), Uruguay (9%), Azerbaijan (8.9%), Ukraine (8.8%), Cambodia (8.7%), Chile (8.5%), Panama (8.5%) and the Russian Federation (8.4%).
• By 2016, the top five countries for international travel measured by number of passengers will be the United States (at 223.1 million, an increase of 42.1 million), the United Kingdom (at 200.8 million, 32.8 million new passengers), Germany (at 172.9 million, +28.2 million), Spain (134.6 million, +21.6 million), and France (123.1 million, +23.4 million).

The forecast is good news for airlines, especially in developed regions, which have kept a lid of capacity to maximize profits.

Courtesy:  IATA, The Canadian Press